Caribbean Poker Odds

Understanding the Caribbean stud poker odds is one of the secrets to knowing how to play the poker variant. Caribbean stud is an exciting and fun way to increase your bankroll. The rules are straightforward, the odds are fair, and the payouts are generous. The caribbean stud can be found in most online and land-based casinos.

  • In Caribbean Stud poker's progressive payout, the odds against you winning that bet are as follows: Royal Flush (649,740 to 1); Straight Flush (64,973 to 1); Four of a Kind (4,164 to 1); Full House (693 to 1); and Flush (508 to 1). A Flush or better is the type of hand needed in order to win the bonus money.
  • Caribbean Stud naturally originated in the casinos and cruise ships of the Caribbean ocean. This gambling hotbed produced a variation of poker that normally carries a house edge of 5.3% - about the same as double zero roulette. The odds of making a hand are nearly identical to those of regular draw poker, but implied odds don't apply.
  • For an idea of what the game looks like within an online casino setting, the Caribbean Draw Poker page on the Bovada Casino platform is a great template for what to expect. Similar in spirit to Three Card Poker, the Caribbean version of draw poker.

Caribbean Draw Poker is yet another of the popular Caribbean poker games, in all of which the goal is to make a better five-card poker hand than the dealer to win. However, unlike Caribbean Stud or Caribbean Hold’em, Caribbean Draw Poker allows the player to draw cards in an attempt to improve their hand.

This makes strategy rather complex, but also makes it much more likely for the player to make a big hand. It is licensed by Shufflemaster (see a full list of casino games and their licensees here).

How Each Hand is Played

Each hand begins with the player making an ante bet, as well as an optional progressive side bet. The player is dealt five cards, which he may examine. The dealer is also dealt a five-card hand, however only one card is exposed.

At this point the player has a decision to make. The player may fold their hand, thus forfeiting their hand and their ante bet. Or the player may choose to call, which also comes with the option of discarding up to two cards. The call bet is twice the size of the initial ante bet. Any discarded cards will be replaced by the dealer, leaving the player with a new five-card hand.

After the player has made his decisions and received any new cards, the dealer reveals his hand.

If the dealer has a straight or better, then the dealer will stand. If the dealer has less than a straight, they will also take the option to discard up to two cards. If the dealer has three of a kind, a pair, or no pair, the dealer will draw two new cards. If the dealer has two pair, a four card straight draw, or a four card flush draw, he will take one card.

The dealer now checks to see if he qualifies. The dealer needs a minimum of a pair of eights to qualify. If the dealer does not qualify any player still in the hand wins even money on the ante bet, and pushes their call bet.

If the dealer does qualify then the dealer’s hand is compared to the player’s hand. If the dealer has the best hand, the player loses the ante and call bets. If the player has the best hand, the player wins even money on the ante bet, and wins the call bet. Pay-outs are determined by a pay chart like the one below. In the case of a tie, both bets push.

Pay Chart

HandPays
Royal Flush100 to 1
Straight Flush50 to 1
Four of a Kind20 to 1
Full House7 to 1
Flush5 to 1
Straight3 to 1
Three of a Kind2 to 1
Two Pair or Less1 to 1

Pay-Outs

As in other Caribbean games, the Caribbean Draw Poker progressive jackpot is typically paid only on the player’s initial five-card hand. If the player discards and draws new cards, they cannot win the progressive jackpot (in some rare cases, lesser pay-outs are given for drawn hands).

Odds

The pay-outs are typically as follows:

HandPays
Royal Flush100% of Jackpot
Straight Flush10% of Jackpot
Four of a Kind$500
Full House$100
Flush$50

Strategy for Playing

The golden rule of Caribbean Draw Poker is – never fold! Even with the worst possible hand it is worth drawing and trying to improve your hand. The reason is simple – the dealer will only qualify about 52 per cent of the time, meaning that 48 per cent of the time you’ll win regardless of the cards you hold.

Despite the simplicity of the fold/call decision, drawing strategy can still be rather complex. You should never break up a flush (including straight flushes and royal flushes), four of a kind or full house. Only break up a straight if you hold K-Q-J-T of the same suit, since this hand gives you the opportunity to improve to a flush, a straight flush, or a royal flush. With three of a kind, discard the other two cards. With two pair, discard the odd card.

With pairs, the standard play is to hold the pair and the highest other card, discarding the two low singletons. However, there are many exceptions.

Generally, you’ll break up the pair when it allows you to draw to a four-card royal or straight flush. With tens or lower, you can also break them up to chase a four-card flush draw. Pairs lower than eights should be broken up to many three card draws as well, as these small pairs must improve to beat any qualifying dealer hand.

With no pair, you’ll want to hold onto (in order of preference) a four-card royal/straight draw, a four card open-ended straight draw, a three card royal or straight flush draw, a three card flush draw, or a four card inside straight draw. If you have none of these options, simply hold your three highest cards.

Curious55
Hello everybody,
My first time here, bad english... Please be patient and/or indulgent :)))
My question:
In the Caribbean Stud Poker table, for the player winning with a royal flush, I can see there are 16759740 combinations. As the total number of combinations is 19933230517200, it means the probability is 8.40794E-07.
But if I try to calculate by my own, I get a different result. Could you help me to find my mistake please ?
The odds of player royal are 4 in 2,598,960, which is 1 in 649,740 and the probability is 1.53908E-06
The odds of dealer royal is reduced to 3 in 1,533,939, or 1 in 511,313.
The odds of coincidental dealer royal is 1 in 332,220,508,620 (The product of the two prior values) and the probability of this happening (for a push hand) is 3.01E-12 (very weak)
So the probability for player winning with royal flush should be near 4/ 2,598,960 because the coincidence is weak: 1.53908E-06 - 3.01E-12 = 1.53907E-06 far from the expected 8.40794E-07
Where am I missing something ?
Thanks
Draw poker odds
Jufo81

Hello everybody,
My first time here, bad english... Please be patient and/or indulgent :)))
My question:
In the Caribbean Stud Poker table, for the player winning with a royal flush, I can see there are 16759740 combinations. As the total number of combinations is 19933230517200, it means the probability is 8.40794E-07.
But if I try to calculate by my own, I get a different result. Could you help me to find my mistake please ?
The odds of player royal are 4 in 2,598,960, which is 1 in 649,740 and the probability is 1.53908E-06
The odds of dealer royal is reduced to 3 in 1,533,939, or 1 in 511,313.
The odds of coincidental dealer royal is 1 in 332,220,508,620 (The product of the two prior values) and the probability of this happening (for a push hand) is 3.01E-12 (very weak)
So the probability for player winning with royal flush should be near 4/ 2,598,960 because the coincidence is weak: 1.53908E-06 - 3.01E-12 = 1.53907E-06 far from the expected 8.40794E-07
Where am I missing something ?
Thanks


I assume the phrase 'Player wins with royal flush' means getting the full 100x payout for the royal and not just 1 ante when dealer doesn't qualify. So you should take into account that there is a roughly 45% - 50% chance of dealer not qualifying against your royal (note that one A+K has already been removed from the deck to your royal, which means one less chance for dealer to make a A/K high qualifying hand).
As a side note I once got a royal which would have paid 20,000€ if dealer qualified. He didn't :(
Curious55

I assume the phrase 'Player wins with royal flush' means getting the full 100x payout for the royal and not just 1 ante when dealer doesn't qualify.


Of course, that's the point !
Ok, thank you very much Jufo...
Hope your next royal will pay ! :)
Jufo81

Of course, that's the point !
Ok, thank you very much Jufo...
Hope your next royal will pay ! :)


If you want to know the exact probability of dealer qualifying/winning/losing against any player hand, you can use the calculator below where you put player's cards and dealers first card:
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/caribbean-stud-poker/strategy-calculator.html
For example if player has Hearts royal Ah Kh Qh Jh Th and Dealer has 5 of clubs (5c) the calc says exactly 45.0832% probability for dealer not qualifying.
Curious55

If you want to know the exact probability of dealer qualifying/winning/losing against any player hand, you can use the calculator below :
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/caribbean-stud-poker/strategy-calculator.html


Ooooooooooh, I didn't know .

Caribbean Poker Odds


Thanks a lot again !!
I hope your next two royals will pay, lol
Jufo81

Ooooooooooh, I didn't know .
Thanks a lot again !!
I hope your next two royals will pay, lol


Yeah me too, but you don't get them every day lol. Actually I got my royal in Oasis Poker where you can replace one of your cards by paying one ante. Other than the possibility to replace one card, the rules and payouts are exactly the same as in Caribbean Stud.
Curious55

Yeah me too, but you don't get them every day lol. Actually I got my royal in Oasis Poker where you can replace one of your cards by paying one ante.


Do you know if any calculator for such a game exists (with possibility of drawing one card) ?

Poker Odds Hands

It would be very nice !
Jufo81

Do you know if any calculator for such a game exists (with possibility of drawing one card) ?
It would be very nice !


Poker

Poker Odds Pdf

No, I haven't seen any calculator for that game. But the strategy when you should replace one card is given here (it's not completely precise):
http://wizardofodds.com/oasispokerOdds
After the card switch decision you would simply follow the same strategy as in Caribbean Stud.
If you scroll down the above link it also shows you the probability to get each hand (royal etc.). As you see, getting a Royal in Oasis is much easier because you can switch one card to get it.
Curious55


But the strategy when you should replace one card is given here (it's not completely precise):
http://wizardofodds.com/oasispoker


What impressive the Wizard of odds site is !
Thanks to him.
Jufo81

What impressive the Wizard of odds site is !
Thanks to him.


That's true. If you really wanted to play with perfect strategy with best odds, you should also add the following rules to the switching strategy:
Switch one player card also with:
-Four to a flush with a 22 to 66 pair when the dealer's upcard is a greater rank than the pair
-Four to an outside straight with a 22 to 33 pair when the dealer's upcard is a greater rank than all cards in the straight

Caribbean Stud Poker Odds


-Four to an inside straight without pair when the high card of the straight is 10 or greater, and the dealer's upcard is lesser rank than all cards in the straight
These rules were listed at another site.

Caribbean Poker Probabilities

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